Gold Price in India

Inflation is not a major determinant of gold rates in India today. Individuals do argue that when inflation moves higher, along with them, you also have things like gold prices going higher. In fact, the only time gold prices go lower is when inflation goes higher. Let us give you an example. When inflation goes higher in the US, at such time gold prices fall, as the US Federal Reserve gears up to hike interest rates in the US. This leads to a phenomenon of selling in gold, as rising interest rates means individuals rush to sell gold and buy instruments where the interest rates are higher. This would typically be your sovereign bonds in the US.  So, gold and US Bond yields move in different directions. hese are secure and offer you regular interest, which makes them great attractive bets for the long term. So, those who say that inflation and gold prices move in the same direction would be getting their statement wrong. The big determinant for gold in India in 2018 would be the direction of interest rate movements in the US, which should be higher and hence the prices of gold going lower are rather high. So, watch before investing. One thing we wish to state is that inflation in India is not a big determinant for gold prices across the world. Global inflation matters because of several reasons. The first is that inflation rise means interest rates rise, which leads to higher interest rates and hence an impact on gold prices. So, watch for this factor very carefully. So, overall you need to watch for inflation carefully, which could push interest rates higher in the country.

Now, where is this gold? Nobody seems to have an idea, but, if there is adequate gold demand, it is unlikely that we will see pressures for gold in India, given the fact that there would also be good supply. However, one of the best things that there is a lot of gold available in the world in the form of gold coins, bars and jewellery, which can be melted, so there are no issues at all with regards to the same. How much of this is pure gold, is always the big question, given the fact that jewellery is always alloyed with gold.

According to information from the World Gold Council demand for gold from India was subdued last year. Nonetheless, India managed to once again overtake China in terms of gold consumption. In fact, jewellery demand in India has shot up significantly in the last few years, pushing demand for gold higher. Despite the fact that there have been good substitutes like e-gold and gold ETFs, as an alternative to buying physical gold, investors continue to buy the precious metal in its present form. The government has been discouraging gold imports through duties in order to curb the current account deficit. Last year it imposed a series of duty hikes, which are still in place to discourage the import of gold. In the last few years, gold price movement has been sluggish, and last year the precious metal broke a 12-year winning streak. But, it has given substantial returns ever since the Lehman crisis erupted in 2008, which saw gold price in India rally. How far it would sustain is difficult to say. Honestly speaking, going foward we do not see any agressive bets on the metal happening in the near future.

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